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Executive Summit

Mark your calendar for the 2011 Executive Summit
May 15-17 at the Westin Savannah Harbor Resort & Spa in Savannah, Georgia

The 2010 Executive Summit delivered on its promise, providing a potent mix of business intelligence and the opportunity for member company executives to interact with speakers and their peers.  Here are some of the highlights: 

Economic Analysis and Forecast - Recovery through 2012

Alan Beaulieu, one of the nation's most incisive - and accurate - economic forecasters, reprised his analysis for the ISEA executives.  He reported encouraging signs in the current economic patterns, and predicted that five of the next seven years will be up years. "You'll make money," he said, "but it's going to be different."

He sees 2010 as a "nice recovery year," 2011 as stronger.  2013 will be flat, 2014 will show a mild decline, and 2015 through 2017 will be another recovery with a good rate of growth.  To put it in perspective, he said that in late 2016 and early 2017 the economy will begin to grow again - that is, it will be higher than it was in 2007-08.   Looking longer term, he warned of looming hard times - what he called the Great Depression of the 2030's. 

Concerning employment, Beaulieu noted that the economy will need to produce 250,000 jobs a month for three years just to get back to pre-recession employments levels, and that isn't going to happen. 

For the near term, he warned about the return of inflation, citing pressure on commodity prices and global demand for energy, among other causes.  He advised the group to recognize the lessons of the 1970's:  Borrow at a fixed rate.  Buy inflation-adjusted assets such as real estate, putting in enough to get a positive cash flow.  Buy capital equipment that will help produce future efficiency.  Lock in prices wherever possible, signing long-term contracts without inflation escalator clauses.  Invest in commodities.

Although his analysis is non-political, Beaulieu did express his views of the effects of some current government policies.  For those who suggest raising taxes on "the rich," he noted that people earning more than $250,000 already pay 61% of all taxes.  "You could tax them at 100% and solve nothing."  As taxes are increased, he said, job creation tumbles.  Given the track of the US dificit projections, based on current funding levels and optimistiic assumptions about annual GDP growth, by 2020 the government will only be able to pay for entitlement programs and interest.  "We're on track to be Greece," he said.  As to the various stimulus programs, he simply noted that key economic indicators were already trending up before the stimulus legislation was passed.

Looking around the world, he suggested that India may be a better bet than China for the future, because of its more powerful middle class and its improving literacy and education.  He updated his list of countries with winning and losing demographics, putting the USA, India, Indonesia, Australia and Canada in the plus column; with China, Russia, Japan and Europe on the negative side. 

View Alan Beaulieu's presentation.

Revolution Restrained or Revolution Reversed?- What's Ahead in Washington

Ron Elving, National Public Radio's Washington editor and one of the nation’s top political journalists, shared critical insights about the Obama Administration, turmoil in Congress, voter backlash and what all this could mean for the critical 2010 congressional elections.

He showed recent poll results indicating the hills and valleys in the way people feel about government.  The populariity of the Obama Administration is down from its initial high level, he said, but there's a general negative feeling about all government, as well as other institutions such as banks, corpporations, unions and the media.  It's what he calls the "unhappy country," similar to the national mood at times in previous administrations.

As Washington struggles to respond, policymakers are trying to do a multitude of things at the same time, while people are getting worked up about deficit spending.  Elving said he thinks that public awareness of the national debt is "unprecedented," and will affect upcoming elections.  And the mood is further soured by a partisan culture that leaves no room for compromise.

Elving characterized the 2010 midterm elections as a "gathering storm," and outlined some of the trends to watch and the elections get closer.  The predicted that 2010 will be a rough year for Democrats, with substantial erosion of their majorities in both Houses of Congress.  Looking further ahead, he reminded the audience of how previous presidents - Truman, Eisenhower, Reagan and Clinton - bounced back after midterm losses.  And he noted the divisions in race, gender, age and other factors that increasingly divide the electorate and will have a strong influence in the next election.

Analyzing current legislation, Elving predicted that the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has probably doomed chances of an energy bill.  Commenting on the "card check" bill sought by labor, he said that there are fewer votes for the measure in the current Senate than in the last one, and that the House - where it would pass easily - is not wiling to take the lead without assurance that the Senate will approve.  

View Ron Elving's presentation

BRIC and Beyond - Growth Opportunities for PPE Industry

Sanjiv Bhaskar, global director of personal protective equipment markets for Frost & Sullivan, led off the conference with his analysis of markets for PPE around the world.  He provided a snapshot of the BRIC countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China.  China and India have fared relatively well, with continuing growth through the recession, while Brazil and Russia are emerging from a negative period.  Together they represent 42% of the world's population and 46% of its workforce, but only 23% of GDP.  Much of their gains in the next 20 years will come at the expense of the US and Europe.

Bhaskar reviewed the composition of the $23 billion global PPE market, nearly half of which is protective apparel and gloves.  He also identified current and expected trends in the market, market segmentation, and drivers and restraints.

Growth opportunities in countries will vary based on market potential (GDP, population, workforce) and ease of doing business (distribution efficiency, regulations, local compliance).  He identified industries in the BRIC ntions that are likely to benefit from their stimulus funding, as well as catalysts for growth around the world.

Bhaskar wrapped up his presentation by reviewing results of user surveys on PPE - why workers prefer one type over another, for example, and how these factors differ in different countries and cultures. 

View Sanjiv Bhaskar's presentation

Market Assistance and the National Export Initiative

Jim Rice, director of consumer goods trade policy for the US Department of Commerce, reviewed assistance available from federal government sources for exporting companies.  Smaller businesses especially should take advantage of opportunities from the US Commercial Service, he said, including trade counseling, market intelligence, business matchmaking and commercial diplomacy.

Rice reported that $140 million has been appropriated to help meet the goals of the National Export Initiative, aimed at doubling exports over the next five years.  For the first time, there will be a government-wide export promotion strategy, with the aim of increasing the number of exporting companies, and the markets to which they sell.

In a wide-ranging presentation, Rice also reviewed assistance programs available through the Manufacturing and Services office at Commerce, and the Trade Agreements Compliance Program.  He related an example of the success that program had breaking down foreign trade barriers for a US manufacturer in Japan.  

View Jim Rice's presentation

Employment Projections for Green Jobs

Vesselka McAlarney from the Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation presented an analysis of current and projected employment in "green jobs" in Florida.  Her agency defines "green job" as one that directly produces green products, or directly provides green services in industries that manufacture or produce renewable energy; increase energy efficiency; conserve natural resources; prevent, reduce and clean up pollution, or produce clean transportation and fuels.   

She noted that green industries and occupations, while pervasive, may be difficult to identify.  For example, ordinary jobs such as accountants work in green industries, while uniquely green jobs may by part of routine industries and firms. 

McAlarney, a statistician, reviewed lists of emerging green industries in Florida, new and emerging green occupations, and induistries and occupations that are being "rlabeled" as green.  Many of them  require personal protective equipment that may be unique to the new technologies, though most green workers will be wearing or using PPE for familiar tasks.

View Vesselka McAlarney's presentation